Report by Engineering Post
Pakistan has developed a new integrated energy planning mode for guiding long-term policy decisions, as rising demand, import dependence and climate changes have placed pressure on the energy sector.
According to a report submitted to the Power Division of the Federal Government, the model Pak-IEM 2.0 has been developed by Germany’s development agency GTZ in collaboration with the Energy Planning and Resource Centre under a project which focused on decar carbonization and digitization of power distribution networks.
Pakistan’s energy system, as per a report in this regard, was under strain from persistent rapid population growth, urbanization and increasing demand for cooling, transport and industrial output , alongside reliance on imported fossil fuels. These factors were affecting affordability, energy security and fiscal stability.
The model has been designed to support long-term planning using the TIMES VEDA framework, allowing the policy makers to compare different energy pathways and assess trade -offs related to costs, investment, emissions and energy security.
Under the model two scenarios have been developed; a Least Cost Baseline and a Net Zero Energy pathway. The Least Cost Baseline scenario assumes continuation of current policies as of July 2025 with adoption of cost-efficient technologies but without strict decarburization targets. Under this pathway, energy demand has been projected to grow at about 2./5 times by 2050 compared to 2024 level, while final energy demand increases by around 30 % .Renewable energy sources become the main contributor to power generation, reducing emissions from the power sector by about 50 %.
The Net Zero Energy scenario, on the other hand, outlines a transition aligned with Pakistan’s climate targets, aiming for net-zero emissions in the energy sector by 2050. Under the pathway, electricity generation becomes fully decarbonized after 2040 and reaches net -negative emissions by mid-century through technologies such as bioenergy with carbon capture and storage.
